Gore spoke at the Copenhagen in December of 2009 about climate: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr. Maslowski that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.” Many scientists disagreed, more on that later. What is the situation today?
AFP yesterday: “Arctic sea ice last month was around 50 percent higher in volume compared with a year earlier, following a recovery in area this summer, the European Space Agency (ESA) said on Monday.” Rachel Tilling from the Polar Observation Centre: “We didn’t expect the greater ice extent left at the end of this summer’s melt to be reflected in the volume. But it has been, and the reason is related to the amount of multi-year ice in the Arctic.”
The critical science community I referred to concerning Gore’s remarks at the Copenhagen, Professor Peter Wadhams, a specialist in ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, commented: “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this. It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”
Richard Lindzen, a climate scientist at the MIT: “He’s just extrapolated from 2007, when there was a big retreat, and got zero.”
AP: “New computer modeling suggests the Arctic Ocean may be nearly ice-free in the summertime as early as 2014, Al Gore said Monday … One US government scientist Monday questioned the new prediction as too severe, but other researchers previously have projected a quicker end than 2030 to the Arctic summer ice cap. … On the other hand, a leading NASA ice scientist, Jay Zwally, said last year that the Arctic could be essentially ice-free within ‘5 to less than 10 years.'”
Gore, movie maker, writer, creative, pathological…